Clean Energy Futures

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AgMaster 11-04-19


US/China trade rhetoric is like a yo-yo – up & down – good & bad – and the mkt has appropriately reflected that during the month of Oct – staying range-bound as the above chart indicates!  Coupled with that is the crop uncertainty due to the late planting – where actual production & yield probably won’t be known until the Jan USDA Report!


  • EXPORTS – Thur Sales were 549,000 (300-800) & Mon inspections were 380,000 (450-650) 135,000 mt Meal – Phillipines, 132,000 mt Beans – Unk, 132,000 mt Beans – China
  • HARVEST PROGRESS – Corn is 41% in (lw-30 avg – 61) Ill – 54 (80)    Ind – 48 (66)  Iowa – 26 (53) good/excellent – 48% (46) maturity – 41% (61)
  • NOV CROP REPORT – FRI – 11/8/19 – all eyes will be anxiously awaiting the USDA’s latest estimates – this will be the final report for 2019 with final #’s due out in Jan 2020 – Informa’s predictions – just out today – reflect a little higher #’s – yield – 168.6 (USDA – 168.4) production – 3.553 (USDA – 3.550)
  • US/CHINA TRADE TALKS – It seems, every other day, headlines come out that refute the previous day’s news – Phase 1 is scheduled to be signed in Mid-Nov in Chile – then the venue is scratched due to civil war – & they’re looking for a new place – then China says they may not sign any additional trade deals after Phase 1 due to the inconsistent nature of the Trump administration – so who knows – our bet is eventually a deal will happen because both sides need it – regardless of the “posturing”
  • HISTORICALLY CHEAP – Corn prices are in the lower 20% of a 10 year range ($3-$8) – as we mentioned in our last letter – so a lot of supply/demand bearishness is already dialed in
  • EARLY HARVEST LOWS – were scored in early Sept and validated by a $.50 rally (352-402) since then!

We feel the “down” has clearly been removed from the equation – and that leaves “sideways or up”! The later option should prevail – especially with a successful trade resolution!!



Nov Beans have managed a $.90 rally (845-945) since early Sept off the US/China trade optimism & an  improving export picture! Just today the 10am grain inspections showed a robust 1.5 MMT & last week there were frequent 8am sales announcements!  The mkt will sideways trade this week in front of harvest progress estimates today & the Nov USDA on Fri!


  • EXPORTS – Mon inspections were 1,480,000 (850-1,500) & Thur inspections were 943,000 (500-1,100)
  • US/CHINA TRADE DEAL – the latest scuttlebutt has the Phase One signing between the trading behemoths occurring in Iowa sometime in Nov!
  • HARVEST PROGRESS – beans are 62% in (lw-46 avg – 78)) Ill – 96% (avg – 100)  Ind – 96% (avg-100)  Iowa – 97 (avg – 100)
  • USDA NOV CROP REPORT – FRI – 11/8 – #’s are expected to be close to Oct    Yield – Oct USDA – 46.9     FC Stone  – 47.5     Informa – 47.0    Prod –  Oct USDA –  3.550   FC Stone – 3.570   Informa  – 3.553

A trade deal (Phase One) should soon be signed & harvest pressure will soon be past the Mid-point – two positives furthering an up mkt!



Egypt tendered for 235,000 MT of wht – so far they have bought 3.605 MMT with 50% from Russia –  21% from Ukraine – 20% from Romania & 8% from France!  The mkt will closely monitor the USDA Report on Friday – as well as the mkt action in corn & beans for directional clues!



This stalwart bull mkt keeps threatening to top out – as it is extremely overbought and is at a big premium to cash – but strong cash & beef keep it afloat – however, expected strong placements in Oct due to be reflected in the Nov COF on 11/22 may finally do the trick!



While Dec Cat is threatening to put in a top, Dec Hogs are on the other side of the spectrum – toying with establishing a low as near-record production – week to week & a jump in avg weight last week – has staved off the promise of future exports from China once the trade deal is finalized  and kept Dec Hogs under continuous pressure!


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