This is an abbreviated version – waiting on the USDA Report next Monday at 11am! The mkt put in a seasonal low following the key-reversal-up after the bearish Oct Crop Report On Thur 10/12! Since then, we’ve had sideways congestion – with the “good” – daily export sales & lagging crop maturity offset by the “bad” – harvest pressure & no trade deal – yet!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon – 600,000 MT Beans to China Tues 200,000 MT Corn to Mexico Wed – 581,000 MT Beans to China Thur – 257,000 MT Beans to China Fri – 126,000 MT Beans to China
- US/CHINA TRADE DEAL – on again, off again! One day it looks good – and the next day not! But we’ve resumed face-to-face meetings – with more scheduled for DC in early Oct! And some exports are flowing! Our feeling is Trump needs a deal to get back in! The farm vote was critical for him in 2016!
- CROP MATURITY IS LAGGING -reminding us of the slowest corn & bean harvest in recent memory – however an unseasonably warm September has really helped the late-planted crop
- GEO-POLITICAL FACTORS – the recent “impeachment inquiry” is not good for the mkts in general – time, money & effort that should be devoted to constructively resolving our many issues is instead devoted to our endless political bickering
- WEATHER – a so-far warm Sept has taken frost out of the equation but the crop is a long way from in the bin
- OUTSIDE MKTS – The DJI is hugging the highs – crude is in the middle –range bound but the strong US Dollar is harmful -restricting badly needed exports
- PRICE LEVEL – taking a gander at the 10-year charts, we find ourselves in the Bottom 1/3 of a 10 year range
- SEASONALS – harvest lows – in our opinion – have already been made
We feel the “DOWN” has been taken out of the mkt – at current levels! That means sideways to up – and this depends on how the yields turn out – our “gut” says they won’t be as good as generally thought!!
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