Clean Energy Futures

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Crop Progress 11/4

Good afternoon friends

Crop progress was just released, you can find it HERE. The report shows corn harvest fell further behind pace as the report missed expectations while soybeans were pretty much right on the guess.  I don’t think the data causes a huge turnaround, but I do expect corn prices to be up in the overnight.

Corn is 52% harvested, the trade was expecting 58%.  Northern states lag with North Dakota well behind in both corn and beans. Eastern states saw their lag extended due to a week of wet weather .  Last year at this time the crop was 75% harvested, which is the 5 year average.  Soybean harvest is 75% complete, about a week behind average so you can probably expect corn to pick up as the weather drys out and bean harvest completes. The next 7 days will provide a dry window to move forward.

Oddly, corn ratings remain on the report (no ratings for beans and cotton)- coming in at 58% G/E which is where they were last week. I do not expect a major reduction in yields for corn or soybeans in the coming report, a small reduction is likely in my opinion.

Cotton harvest is 53% complete vs 51% on average. Texas is 42% complete vs 51% average.  Weather in West Texas is a bit sketchy over the middle part of this week as forecasters are calling for storms between the panhandle and Arkansas over the next week.  This won’t be helpful for cotton producers but it will help wheat conditions.

Winter wheat is 89% planted, on pace virtually everywhere which is amazing considering the slow harvest.  The crop conditions are solid from a nationwide perspective (57% G/E vs 51% last year) but there are areas that need monitoring.  Texas is off to a poor start with 26% of the crop rated poor or very poor.  Out east, Illinois has 29% rated p/vp, Indiana is at 13% and Ohio is at 12%.

 

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About Alec Torrey

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