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September USDA WASDE Recap

Good Afternoon Friends

WASDE Video Summary

 

WASDE was released a few moments ago. I would classify the report as bearish for corn, they only dropped yield slightly and offset it more with demand decreases. It should be noted USDA used an ear weight was the lowest since 2015, which some thing could influence things as the grain gets weighed out after production. This will fluctuate with weather. The report was bullish for soybeans as yield decreases will be joined higher crush and higher exports, featuring a carryout cut of nearly 100 million bushels or 15%.  Cotton numbers were bearish, lower old crop stocks were offset by much higher new crop stocks even with a yield cut, as demand fell.

All of this action is secondary though given the “news” that China is looking at buying US ag products to smooth the troubled waters.  Cotton has had its best day since the early part of the baseball season, beans are up 25 to a 5 week high and hogs are 2 over limit in Dec futures. The US-China relations are similar to a couple I knew in college who only experienced good times when getting over a spat.  I believe we are in one of those modes right now between the two countries. Will it hold?  Wake me up when they get married. There is a long way to go until this is settled, I would be using this rally to catch up sales for soy and cotton.

Crop production

Corn: 13.799 billion bu.; trade expected 13.672 billion bu vs 13.901 billion bu. from August
Beans: 3.633 billion bu.; trade expected 3.577 billion bu. vs 3.680 billion bu. projected in August
Cotton: 21.862 million bales; trade expected 21.97 million bales vs 22.516 million bales projected in August

 

U.S. carryout

Corn: 2.445 billion bu. for 2018-19; up from 2.360 billion bu. in August 2.190 billion bu. for 2019-20; up from 2.181 billion bu. in August

Beans: 1.005 billion bu. for 2018-19, down from 1.070 billion bu. in August vs 640 million bu. for 2019-20 down from 755 million bu. in August

Wheat: 1.014 billion bu. for 2019-20 vs 1.014 billion bu. in August

Cotton: 4.85 million bales for 2018-19; down from 5.25 million bales in August vs 7.2 million bales for 2019-20 vs 7.2 million bales in August

 

Global carryover (without China)

Corn: 117.71 MMT for 2018-19; up from 116.74 MMT in August

110.45 MMT for 2019-20; down from 111.91 MMT in August

Beans: 92.67 MMT for 2018-19; down from 94.33 MMT in August

80.17 MMT for 2019-20; down from 82.37 MMT in August

Wheat: 137.47 MMT for 2018-19; up from 135.73 MMT in August

140.84 MMT for 2019-20; up from 139.43 MMT in August

Cotton: 45.13 million bales in 2018-19; up from 44.68 million bales in August

49.95 million bales for 2019-20; up from 48.74 million bales in August

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