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Turner’s Take Podcast: Planting and Stocks Report Tomorrow
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 237

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New Podcast

This week we go over our thoughts on coronavirus and what a second wave could mean to the macro markets.  We also talk about the upcoming Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report to be released on June 30, at 11 am central.  Make sure you take a listen to this week’s Turner’s Take podcast.

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Grain & Oilseeds

The Planted Acres and Quarterly Stocks report will be released tomorrow at 11 am.  The market is looking for a reduction in corn acres.  The USDA reported acres at 97 million in March and many in the trade are looking for 94 million to 96 million tomorrow.

Below is my supply and demand table for new crop corn acres and yield scenarios.  My bullish estimate is 94mm acres planted and a 175 yield.  That puts corn ending stocks at 2.5 billion and corn is still below $3.50 basis Dec futures during harvest lows.  The good news is that scenario lets corn rally 20 cents and the lows are in for the year.

The market neutral scenario is 95mm acres and trend line yields of 178.5 bpa.  Ending stocks are just under 3 billion and it argues for corn to test $3 by harvest.  The bearish scenario is 96mm acres and a 180 bpa national average.  In this case ending stocks are still around 3.3 billion and prices are sub $3 during harvest basis Dec 2020 futures.

Once this report comes out I think trades quickly move onto the weather.

Corn Supply and Demand with Acreage and Yield Scenarios

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The forecasts for the next two weeks turned hotter and drier over the weekend.  Below is the 8-14 day temperature and precipitation maps from the NOAA.  The weather will be hotter than normal with average precipitation. The next four to six weeks is when corn and soybeans are made.  Corn will be pollinating and soybeans will be blooming/flowering.  These are critical times for corn and soybean production and the market will add weather premium if the forecasts stay hot and get drier for extended periods of time.

NOAA 8-14 Day Temperature Forecast Map

NOAA 8-14 Day Precipitation Temperature Map


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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

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About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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