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Turner’s Take Podcast: Projected Ending Stocks for 2020-21 Are Concerning
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 197

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This week we take another look at 2020-21 corn and soybeans projections.  We make conservative assumptions about 2019-20 final production and 2020-21 acres, yields, and demand.  If there are no big production surprises in the US or South America, then corn and soybeans could be substantially lower next year.  ASF will be an issue for global feed demand and the US/China trade war has no end in sight.  Take a listen to Turner’s Take Podcast to learn more.

Corn

Below are my very early estimates for 2020-21 corn and soybeans.  I am using the Pro Farmer yields for 2019-20.  We are assuming normal weather for S America and the US next year.  Turner’s Take also assumes 95mm acres of corn and 83mm acres of soybeans with trend line yield.  We acknowledge that ASF is a drag on feed demand and the very strong possibility the US/Chinese trade war is not resolved by the 2020 US Presidential election.

Corn looks worse than soybeans.  Corn ending stocks could be projected at 2.8 or 2.9 billion bushels. If we have a great production year with higher than trend line yields then carryout could be 3 billion and harvest lows in 2020 could be $3.00.  Dec 2020 corn is trading $4.04 now.  Dec 20 vs Dec 21 is only a 10 cent carry.  $4.00 Dec 2020 puts are about 25 cents.  I think we can get better prices for all of those in Sept/Oct if we rally due to cold weather, slow crop maturity, and frost risk.  At that point I think we need to get aggressive with 2020 corn marketing.

Soybeans

As for soybeans, a 600 or 700mm carryout means prices are still trade in the low $8s to mid $9s.  There seems to be more risk in corn right now.  Any deal with China would be more beneficial to soybeans.  I think beans also have a bullish story in Sept/Oct and we will look at similar ideas with futures, spreads, and puts like we have with corn.

If you want more information about our marketing and hedging ideas for 2020 please call me at 312-706-7610 or reply to this email.  I am still bullish corn in Sept and Oct, but once we have the autumn rally I think we need to get some significant protection in place for 2020-21 corn and any new crop you plan on storing after harvest.

2020-21 Corn & Soybean Ending Stock Projections

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

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Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
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Twitter: @Turners_Take

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This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

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About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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