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Turner’s Take Podcast: Transitioning to Wide Ranging Consolidation
Turner's Take Podcast

Play Turner’s Take Podcast Episode 224

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New Podcast

I am working from home while IL has a Stay at Home order in effect.  My office cell is 312-651-4621.  My office phone 312-706-7610 will roll over to my cell phone if you call my trade desk.  This week we talk about the steps that took place so a potential bottom could be made.  I think the market is now heading into a period of wide ranging consolidation. We talk about what to look for and why in the coming weeks for stocks, energy, livestock and grains.  Make sure you take a listen to the latest Turner’s Take Podcast!

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777.  You will receive the newsletter and podcast notifications for free!

Markets we talk about:

S&P 500 – I want to start buying the stock indices on the dips.  The Micro (MES) is $5 per point and the Emini S&P (ES) is $50 per point.  If the S&P is around 2400, that means the total contract value of the Micro is $12,000 and the ES is $120,000.  Just something to keep in mind in addition to the margins.

Energy – I like July RBOB on the dips but that contract is a hard one to trade.  The swings are violent and volume is thin.  I like July Crude oil too.  For those of you who want a more limited risk play, take a look at Dec 20 vs Dec 21 Crude oil.  The margin will be a couple thousand but with the volatility in the markets we have to get used to higher margins and risk for the next couple of months

Dec 20 vs Dec 21 Crude Oil

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777.  You will receive the newsletter and podcast notifications for free!

Soybeans – I think soybeans have some potential over the long term. However, in the short term I think Nov 20 is too high against March 21.  Full carry is closer to 40 cents yet we are at a 20 cent inverse.  I don’t know why SX20 blew out so high over SH21 but I think it comes back down into the range.

Nov 20 vs March 21 Soybeans

Over the long term I want to find a way to get long soybeans (I know above is a bear spread but that is just for the short term).  On the breaks I do like Nov 20 vs Nov 21.  Soybean stocks could get tight this year.  If we have weather issues the bean market will be sensitive to it.  So if and when soybeans break, I’ll be looking at bull spreading Nov 20 vs Nov 21

Nov 20 vs Nov 21 Soybeans

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777.  You will receive the newsletter and podcast notifications for free!

Cattle – I think December 2020 Live Cattle has value in the low 100s.  Take a look at both charts below.  The first is this years trading range.  The second chart is from our friends at Moore Research (MRCI).  In the past 10 years it is rare for Dec LC to get below 100.  I think demand for beef, pork, and poultry will be strong for the rest of the year.  I think the back end of cattle is a good value on the breaks.

Dec 2020 Live Cattle

Historical Dec Live Cattle Chart from MRCI

This Month

I will be working from home. You can call my office number 312-706-7610 and it will roll to my cell phone. My cell is 312-651-4621 and you can reach me there too.  Anything I can do in Chicago I can do from my home office, so feel free to call, text, or email anytime.  Stay safe and lets hope for better news and developments soon.

What I’m Doing at Home with the Family 

Exercise – The family is now going on daily walks with the dog.  If I walk all the streets in my neighborhood it is about one mile.  If we cross main street and head down to the local lake and high school I can make it a two to three mile walk.  We spend about an hour walking around the neighborhood and town after work but before dinner.  The weather has been cooperating so it has made for some nice family time.

My gym is closed so I’ve dusted off some old dumbbells and watched a few YouTube videos for home dumbbell workouts.  It is surprising how many exercises you can do with a bench and some free weights.

Rummy – Rummy has taken off in my house big time.  My older kids play the classic rules and for my little ones we found a children’s rummy game that is easy to learn. 

If you are not a subscriber to Turner’s Take Newsletter then text the message TURNER to number 33-777.  You will receive the newsletter and podcast notifications for free!

About Turner’s Take Podcast and Newsletter

If you are having trouble listening to the podcast, please click here for Turner’s Take Podcast episodes!

Craig Turner – Commodity Futures Broker
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing: https://www.turnerstakeag.com
Turner’s Take Spec: https://www.turnerstake.com
Twitter: @Turners_Take

Contact Craig Turner

Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast

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Turner’s Take Newsletter & Podcast – Turner’s Take is a complimentary weekly market commentary newsletter that covers the Grain, Livestock and Energy futures spread markets using fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.

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Risk Disclosure

This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.

This material has been prepared by a Daniels Trading broker who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, Daniels Trading does not maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Rule 1.71. Daniels Trading, its principals, brokers and employees may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the opinions and recommendations contained therein.

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Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup.

You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources. You should read the “risk disclosure” webpage accessed at www.DanielsTrading.com at the bottom of the homepage. Daniels Trading is not affiliated with nor does it endorse any third-party trading system, newsletter or other similar service. Daniels Trading does not guarantee or verify any performance claims made by such systems or service.

About Craig Turner

Craig Turner is a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, author of Turner’s Take newsletter, and a Contributing Editor for Grain Analyst. Craig is often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Dow Jones Newswire, Corn & Soybean Digest, and also makes appearances on SiriusXM – Rural Radio Channel 80 providing commentary for the Grain and Livestock markets. Craig has also been featured in FutureSource’s Fast Break series, Futures Magazine Online, and INO.com. Mr. Turner has a Bachelors from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) where he graduated with honors and has worked at the NYSE and Goldman Sachs. While at Goldman, Craig earned his MBA in the NYU Stern executive program. Learn more about Craig Turner.

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